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Market View: January-February 2026

By Argent Wealth Management, LLC on January 9, 2026

This Market View will highlight economics, valuations, and trends as we start 2026.

Overview

Recession odds remain low.
- Expect the bull market to continue.
The Federal Reserve (The Fed) is in an easing cycle, supporting stock and bond markets.
Valuation and earnings trends support a continuation of the bull market.
A correction in the 5-10% range would not be surprising within the context of an ongoing bull market.
- A larger one is possible if AI adoption is slower and/or lower than expected.
  - Earnings estimates would be revised down, along with economic forecasts.
  - The Federal Reserve would likely decrease rates faster than expected in this scenario to support economic growth, stock, and bond markets.

Economics

Credit conditions remain strong. Businesses and individuals can access credit to invest in new projects. This typically trends downward when a recession is imminent.

The spread between corporate investment grade credit and treasuries is tight relative to history. This implies bond investors expect continued economic growth. This measure typically widens around recessions.

The employment market remains in solid shape with one job per unemployed worker still available.

Credit card delinquency rates are trending lower, and remain low, implying consumers are not falling behind on debt service and remain in good shape.

The Federal Reserve remains in an easing cycle. If the economy grows faster than expected, the Fed will lower interest rates slower than expected. If the economy grows slower than expected, the Fed will lower interest rates faster than expected. This would buttress the stock market.

Trends and Valuation

The global stock market (MSCI ACWI—All Cap World Index) remains in an uptrend. The price to earnings ratio is on the high side at 21.51, but the price/earnings over growth (PEG) ratio is about average.

Earnings trends remain positive. About 77% of earnings for companies in the MSCI ACWI have been revised up in the last sixty days.

Earnings revisions are strong partly due to increased investment and usage of artificial intelligence (AI). We likely remain in the early innings of AI adoption. ARTY, the iShares Future AI & Tech ETF remains in an uptrend, and valuation looks reasonable.

However, if AI adoption is slower and weaker than expected, it would negatively impact earnings estimates and call into question the rapid and large investment technology and other companies are making.

Gold remains in an uptrend but looks overbought.

Bitcoin is sitting just below its 200-day moving average.

Sources:

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Argent Wealth Management, LLC is a group comprised of investment professionals registered with Hightower Advisors, LLC, an SEC registered investment adviser. Some investment professionals may also be registered with Hightower Securities, LLC (member FINRA and SIPC). Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors, LLC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities, LLC.

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