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Executive Summary Recession risks appear limited for now, as the labor market remains healthy, with job openings still exceeding the number of unemployed workers, a sign of ongoing economic resilience. Inflation is trending higher, and persistent price pressures continue to present a challenge for policymakers and investors alike. The NDR inflation timing model is 22 […]

The economic backdrop remains constructive. Therefore, odds of a large correction remain low. Labor markets remain healthy, economic indicators point to moderate growth, high-yield spreads remain contained, and earnings revisions continue to be positive.

Second Quarter Review, Third Quarter Outlook

Executive Summary Economy Odds of recession remain low. NDR’s recession probability model looks at forward indicators. When recession odds remain low, stocks tend to outperform bonds. High-yield spreads remain at historical lows. Bond investors concur with low recession odds. Retail sales have stayed steady, implying the increase in oil prices hasn’t been enough to stop […]

First Quarter Review, Second Quarter Outlook

Executive Summary Recession risks remain low, supported by strong corporate balance sheets, healthy consumer finances, and a continued moderation in inflation. AI-driven uncertainty is creating compelling long‑term investment opportunities. While commodities may appear overbought in the near term, structural forces suggest a potential long‑duration commodity super‑cycle. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, on their own, […]